WP6 Ecosystem Modelling And Management Scenarios

EwE models will be compiled, updated where needed, and applied to all case studies. Models will be linked to external data sources via the Ecoscope Platform. Data sources will include: water temperature (measurements for historical simulations, model simulations, driven by climate models, for future projections), primary productivity (model or satellite-based estimates depending on availability), [fishing] effort data (where available based on WP3) for driving the models, and fisheries statistics (landings data from FAO/ICES/GFCM and catch data from Sea Around Us) for model validation. While all case study sites have some level of EwE models in place, we will finalize the development of the EwE models at all sites resulting in Ecosim models at each case study and Ecospace models at selected sites, based on the availability of sufficient spatially structured data. Case study specific issues such as marine protected areas (MPAs), fisheries restricted areas (FRAs), aquaculture integration, and invasive species will be included in the model development where relevant.

Task 6.2 will deal with the development of tools for conducting simulations under deep uncertainty for Robust Decision Making. This will consist of an engine to simulate models across large uncertainty spaces (deep uncertainty), database structures to save simulation runs in ways that allow for further analysis, visualization techniques and machine learning techniques (like PRIM: Patient Rule Induction Method). Two parallel systems to address uncertainty and deep uncertainty will be developed: (1) the White-box system testing to mass-execute EwE models in their original form, varying input parameters and configuring internal model hypotheses; and (2) Behavioural meta-modelling techniques linking macro-level policy decisions with micro-level marine models. Model uncertainty will be analysed, quantified and visualized to aid decision-making.

We will use the MSP Challenge simulation platform to develop a next generation planning support system (digital twin) dedicated to fisheries management in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Once developed and tested, the fishery management edition will be incorporated in the existing MSP Challenge simulation platform available for a number of the case study sites (e.g. North Sea, Baltic Sea, Adriatic Sea). The MSP Challenge simulation platform will interconnect best available oceanographic, geochemical, maritime and marine data from the EcoScope Platform with simulation models relevant for fishery management, such as ecology (EwE models), currents, climate change and fishing effort. Using advanced gaming technology, the MSP Challenge simulation platform is designed to engage and immerse users, making it a perfect environment for stakeholder engagement, scenario development, co-design, and social learning. Within this task we will develop a basic MSP Challenge Eastern Mediterranean edition and EwE Ecospace model for the EM region with special emphasis on fisheries, and develop a fisheries management module in the MSP Challenge simulation platform. This will create a single and multi-user complex social-political interaction based on fisheries management with player-user actions over time (fishing fleet reduction, fishing quota, protected areas, aquaculture units and others) and strategic policies or scenarios (based on socio-economic-ecological targets). We will develop the Application Programming Interface (API), or linkage(s) between EwE with the MSP Challenge simulation platform, and a User Dashboard with a fisheries perspective will be developed and implemented in the MSP Challenge simulation platform. It will include, for example, biomass indicators, fishing sector economic performance and it will enhance user interaction and usability. The dashboard will include the white-box uncertainty assessments (Task 6.2) related to maritime spatial planning decisions. The MSP Challenge-EM Fishing edition will be tested and validated based on time-line analysis and user/expert participation in stakeholder workshops (WP8) and will be linked to the EcoScope Platform (WP3).

In this task, we will develop the infrastructure required to test environmental, management and policy scenarios, we will define the management and policy scenario categories and options (e.g. CFP, MSFD, local and national policies) and will examine direct (e.g. water warming) and indirect (e.g. invasive species) climate change impacts, as well as theories such as balanced harvesting. We will conduct and test a series of policy scenarios under deep uncertainty related to future climate conditions and the impact of fisheries and invasive species (where relevant). Robust Decision Making (RDM) will be implemented in order to achieve objective functions such as balanced harvesting and Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) under unknown futures given possible policies. The scenario testing will incorporate model and scenario uncertainty and deep uncertainty developed as part of task 6.2 and apply the Robust Decision Making framework to the scenario evaluation and assessment. Scenarios will be evaluated based on indicators developed as part of WP5. Scenario testing infrastructure and libraries will be incorporated into the EcoScope Toolbox (WP5).